A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
