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This Sunday, the nation of CAR will undertake a pivotal quadruple election, including the presidential race, national assembly, and municipal seats.

A Crowded Presidential Field

A field of seven contenders are vying for the presidency, including ex-premiers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. Both men were given approval to stand by the constitutional court after being initially barred. Dologuélé finished second in the 2015 and 2020 votes, while Dondra had a short tenure under the incumbent.

Challengers' Strategy and Public Discontent

The opposition hopes to tap into widespread discontent in a country where violence remains a constant threat. Over half a million people are internally displaced, with a similar number living as refugees in neighbouring countries.

"This is an chance to acknowledge the remarkable recovery of the country," said a senior UN diplomat, adding that obstacles remain.

The Incumbent's Path

Despite the competition, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a one-time academic, is widely expected to extend his run. He transitioned into politics in 2008 when appointed prime minister, holding the post until a insurgent alliance overthrew the government in 2013, sparking a sectarian conflict.

After a turbulent transition period, his reputation for impartiality from the main militias powered his second-round victory in 2016.

Election Risks and Voting Challenges

There are fears that supply-chain issues and violence could disrupt the electoral process, especially in rural areas. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is providing protection and organizational aid that the country's weak systems cannot manage.

Additional problems include the voter list being published only online, a significant barrier in a country with limited internet access. These issues have led to an opposition boycott and could, according to observers, "disenfranchise large segments of the electorate."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many residents worry that another term for Touadéra—made possible by a 2023 constitutional referendum that scrapped term limits and lengthened mandates—would mean expanded sway for outside interests.

The president has relied on the Russian mercenary group Wagner for his protection, and even after its founder's death, has pushed back against calls to integrate its fighters into a successor entity. In contrast, Rwanda has pursued a different approach, focusing on commercial ventures within CAR.

Allegations of Asset Sales

Allegations have stated the administration removed its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded facility to accommodate a Rwandan agricultural project. A pro-opposition editorial accused the leadership of being "determined to dispose of the country piece by piece."

Amid a newly signed agreement with armed factions offering hope of calm, the vote proceeds under a shadow of uncertainty and external competition.